War of a Thousand Paper Cuts Will Destroy Israel

http://www.nysun.com/pf.php?id=37427

nce the cow falters, knives and butchers multiply," an Arab proverb says. Unless it is clear-headed about Lebanon, Israel will end up with a cease-fire, leading to a war of attrition in which a constellation of jihadists will line up for their cut.

The queue may start with Hamas and other Palestinian Arab jihadists ready to launch a third intifada, but it includes Hezbollah's guerrillas at the Lebanese border and stretches all the way to Damascus and Tehran.

The seriousness of this situation is like nothing we have seen for 25 years. In the past 25 days, a new paradigm has emerged that says to every jihadist out there: Israel can be vanquished; its aura of invincibility is just a mirage, and it is high time for the "big push." The genie has to be forced back into the bottle, which cannot be done Iraq-style — on the cheap — as Israel's military and political leadership seem to think. Three strategic objectives must be tackled immediately:

1. Reinstitute the image of Israel's invincibility that was shattered by Hezbollah's rockets and tenacious resistance by mobilizing all of Israel's reserves to fight the war against Hezbollah — not against Lebanon, where Israel has many friends.

2. Direct the mighty Israeli air force to stop bombing Lebanon and start bombing Hezbollah's primary enabler, Syria, with crippling blows to its leadership, air force, infrastructure, and, yes, oil industry. A 21-day bombing campaign will shift the balance of power and encourage many friendly Lebanese to come out of hiding.

3. Promise a comprehensive peace settlement with Lebanon and moderate Palestinian Arabs, as well as generous financial aid from world donors, immediately after the dust settles — and mean every word of it. That will secure the Sunni Arab Muslim world's support. Why is such a drastic turnaround so crucial?

For years, Israel claimed that its survival was at stake, surrounded as it was by Arab armies. In fact, it had already destroyed each of them, in a matter of days. Now, however, anyone can see that Israel is indeed facing an existential threat — call it death by a thousand paper cuts. Israel's economy and a million of its citizens in the north cannot survive a war of attrition. Unless it is reinstituted with extreme ferocity, Israel's aura of invincibility will give way to a feeding frenzy of jihadi sharks and the collapse of a peacefully inclined but weak Lebanese government.

The apocalyptic scenario of an enemy within and a Shiite militia without comes with impressive numbers to back it up. Together with Hezbollah's sister Lebanese Shiite militia, Amal, and 1 million Shiites in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran's combined Shiite population of 100 million looms large. This huge force is poised to fight foes selected by the Hezbollah leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, and his masters.

I am not an alarmist, just an egoist. For after these jihadi hordes finish their work in Lebanon and Iraq, they'll come for the rest of us: moderate Arabs, secular Arabs, Christian Arabs, Kurds, Armenians, Druze, and eventually the Sunni Muslims (whom they are already cutting to pieces in Iraq).

In this "Spartacus"-like Shiite uprising, which began with the Iranian Revolution of 1979, those hanging on crosses all the way to the gates of Rome will be all the non-jihadists among us. This time around, the barbarians at the gate aren't just coming for the Jews, but also for what is left of Arab secularism and liberal Islam. That, again, is why a cease-fire will not do.

If we were to affix red pins to wherever jihadists are operating today on a map of the Middle East, red would be the color of Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Algeria, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. So, once again, a cease-fire will not do.

If the mythology of Hezbollah survives the war in Lebanon without a demonstrable humiliation or defeat, the notion will spread that jihadists don't need armies, just some fighters and a bit of momentum.

That momentum has spread to Al Qaeda, which is now rallying to Hezbollah's side, as well as Hamas; the Muslim Brotherhoods of Egypt, Jordan, and Syria; Iran's mullahs, and all the jihadi franchises around the world. This is why a cease-fire will not do in the Israel-Hezbollah war.

Sorry, don't have a link to this, but I think this article succinctly puts the situation out there:

New York Daily News
August 16, 2006
Pg. 15

The Terror Kings Win

Garnering neither respect nor fear, Israeli loss is a U.S. defeat, too

By Michael Goodwin

As soon as the guns fell silent after the war between Hezbollah and Israel, the question was: Who won? The answer is pretty obvious. And so the new question is: How bad is the defeat for our side?

My scorecard says it is very bad. And it's threatening to get even worse in a hurry.

What was basically a military tie is especially bad for Israel, which violated the maxim against merely wounding the king in an assassination attempt. It just makes him mad. So Israel now faces energized enemies throughout the region who no longer view its military as invincible.

Even worse, Israel is tearing itself apart in a storm of internal blame and finger-pointing, with predictions that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's coalition could collapse. A poll reported yesterday that two-thirds of Israelis are unhappy with the ceasefire.

The outcome was bad for America, too. Israel's inability to achieve its goals, despite our open support, dents our power and image, a fact Iraqi insurgents and Afghan Taliban are sure to exploit. Respect is nice, but fear is usually better in the Mideast. Right now, nobody there fears us.

Only two days into the tentative ceasefire, it's already clear that this was the little war that couldn't: Couldn't knock out Hezbollah. Couldn't deter Iran and Syria. And couldn't serve as a warning to Islamic terrorists everywhere.

Quite the opposite. Hezbollah seems stronger in every way and is now the king of terror groups. Six years after it drove Israel out of Lebanon, it survived an unprecedented onslaught for a month, something no Arab army has ever done. Its leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, now overshadows the elected government of Lebanon, an ominous sign of things to come.

And the damage goes beyond Lebanon. The presidents of Syria and Iran joined the chorus proclaiming victory, criticizing the U.S. and threatening Israel. Syrian President Bashar Assad said the war turned U.S. dreams of a "new Middle East" into "an illusion." Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, typically seeing divine messages, said "God's promises have come true. On one side, it's corrupt powers ... with modern bombs and planes. And on the other side is a group of pious youth relying on God."

No doubt both will be emboldened to make more mischief by upping their support for Hezbollah and maybe creating copycat groups. Hamas is almost certain to step up its attacks.

Finally, Lebanese officials put an exclamation point on a very bad ending by saying it wasn't the government's job to disarm Hezbollah, no matter what the United Nations thought when it set the ceasefire.

Was there any good news? Only if you believe in hope.

Hope that the UN is serious about assembling a peacekeeping force for southern Lebanon. By its sluggish standards, the UN is moving quickly to fill the gap left by departing Israelis. The involvement of numerous countries, including France, could be a sign that the world recognizes the need to counter Muslim aggression.

And maybe one more thing. The result is convincing proof that a tie, or worse, in Iraq, would be a disaster for America and our cause. The enemy will only grow stronger unless we prevail. But that lesson will be lost on us if we continue to fight among ourselves instead of uniting to fight those who want to kill us all.

Put another way, do you think terrorists care whether dead Americans are Democrats or Republicans?

quote:

Put another way, do you think terrorists care whether dead Americans are Democrats or Republicans?

No, I don't. But I think that betweeen the two they know who their allies are over here. The Left. PC. Liberal "guilt." Those who I believe Lenin called the
"useful idiots."