Chaos in Lebanon could lead to increase in oil price

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A slow-motion coup is unfolding in Lebanon which could plunge the entire Middle East into renewed uncertainty and push up the price of oil, senior Washington analysts have told The Business.

Christian politician Pierre Gemayel’s assassination by pro-Syrian forces on Tuesday will speed the collapse of the Lebanese government and see it replaced by one more heavily influenced by Hezbollah and other pro-Syrian forces, the analysts believe. If one more cabinet member is killed, or resigns, the government will be automatically dissolved; the Lebanese constitution decrees that if a third of the 24 member cabinet leave office the government falls. Six Hezbollah ministers quit earlier this month.

The democratic Cedar revolution, sparked by the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri by pro-Syrian forces in February 2005, forced the Syrian military out of the country. The revolution’s demise has long been predicted by academics such as Walid Phares of the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies, Juan Cole of the University of Michigan and Fawaz Gerges of Sarah Lawrence College.


Earlier this month, the White House took the unusual step of issuing a statement warning that the “Syrian and Iranian governments, Hezbollah, and their Lebanese allies are preparing plans to topple Lebanon’s democratically-elected government.”

Since then Hezbollah has walked out of the cabinet and called on its supporters to usurp, what it calls, the “illegitimate and unconstitutional government”.

One former senior Bush administration staffer told The Business Gemayel’s murder was “predictable” and said: “The way the constitution reads in Lebanon and what Hezbollah did by pulling out of the government means that it was inevitable that the pro-Syrian forces would return to violence”.

He warns that the slaying of another cabinet minister is more than possible. There has already been an attempt on the life of another Christian member.

Fears were mounting on Wednesday that Lebanon could descend into all-out civil war if the government collapses.The economic implications could be huge if the troubles contaminate the rest of the region or prompt outside intervention to punish Syria or Iran, and could include a renewed spike in the price of oil which until now has been largely unaffected by the events.

Syrian supporters want to derail the UN tribunal investigating the murder of Hariri and to increase Hezbollah’s representation in government. Hariri’s killing was blamed on pro-Syrian forces. It is thought that the tribunal could implicate several senior pro-Syrian figures in Lebanon and members of the Syrian government itself.

On Tuesday night the tribunal was approved by the UN Security Council. It now needs the Lebanese government’s approval, which won’t be possible if the cabinet dissolves. Tensions will intensify when a separate UN investigation into Hariri’s death reports on 15 December.

With calls for America to talk to Syria about Iraq coming from its closest ally Tony Blair and expected from James Baker’s Iraq Study Group, international leverage on Syria is limited. Some see the murder as proof that the Syrians are feeling emboldened by the chaos in Iraq. Others describe their supposed willingness to talk as a “diversionary tactic” designed to win time to pursue their agenda in the Lebanon.

With calls for America to talk to Syria about Iraq coming from its closest ally Tony Blair and expected from James Baker’s Iraq Study Group, international leverage on Syria is limited. Some see the murder as proof that the Syrians are feeling emboldened by the chaos in Iraq. Others describe their supposed willingness to talk as a “diversionary tactic” designed to win time to pursue their agenda in the Lebanon.