The way I see it, Taiwan is a rogue state of China, and they are acting to reclaim that land as Chinese, just as the North reclaimed the South as American during the Civil War. Taiwan is a part of China, and has been for over a thousand years, however, the current administration has vowed intervention should it come to blows with China and Taiwan. Once Taiwan claims independence, China has promised to invade, which will begin the domino effect of American involvement.

In my honest opinion, I don't think either our nation or China is foolish enough to use nuclear weapons but as a last resort, and would only be used if conquest of either nation was imminent and on the brink of defeat. The use of a nuclear missile would be "mutually assured destruction" of both nations involved, as it was with the Soviet Union. Current intelligence reports merely give estimates on Chinese nuclear capability, though China could have hundreds if not thousands more missiles.

Though the American military is the best in the world, it would be arrogant to underestimate China. The Chinese will probably retake Taiwan, and wipe out any American fleets in the vicinity that interfere. The Chinese military is mostly a defensive military, and is simply untested in any expeditions of conquest. Their strength lies in sheer numbers. I don't believe the United States could ever conquer China and force a surrender from the ground, nor could the Chinese conquer the United States and force us to surrender. It would essentially become a stalemate as it was back in the Korean war.

If a war happens with China, I believe the battles will be fought strictly in the China sea, and on neither nation's soil, perhaps along the Korean border if Kim Jong comes into the picture. An attempted embarkment on Chinese shores would be a probable disaster. We simply do not have the manpower to push into Chinese territory, or the logistics to traverse the vast landmass of China if they failed to stop us at the beaches. If China tried invading us as retaliation, they would be facing the roughly 300 million snipers, after over half of their landing craft were destroyed.

Though this would be my scenario if conflict were to erupt, I don't think it would be likely in this lifetime due to the large amount of trading between the United States and China.

Question:
From a strictly objective view, and not as a member of the US military, what would the outcome of conflict with China be?

Choices:
United States victory
defeat of China
nuclear winter (everybody loses)
That conflict is unlikely.
other opinion.