Typhoon's last rant got me to pondering, so I put this out to the Milspot Sages to discuss, debate and analyse do death.

Things aren't going as well as expected in Afghanistan.. the Taliban still hold sway over a large part of the territory, though not as much as ordinary folks believe... more like a small percentage of the provinces, but, where they operate they are a huge factor.. coupled with the acknowledged understanding that the Karzai government is ineffective in many areas and 'defective' in others, not to mention 'corrupt' in relative terms.. it is a difficult 'sell' to the folks back home , i.e. the West.. that 'good things are happening' and that 'democracy rules'.

To wean the locals off the drug trade and to get them to 'embrace' western ideals of governance.. the Taliban have to be, if not suppressed, made impotent.

To do this, General McChrystal has proposed to increase troops - about 40,000 - to bring about 'change' and to allow for the legitimate government [ whatever that means ] to develop in-house capability to control the population - he figures this to be a 4 year deal to bring the Afghan army and police up to snuff so that the Taliban can't be 'resurgent', etc...

Now, as Typhoon has so eloquently pointed out.. this doesn't fly with Obama who is fighting a popularity drop and war-fatigue and other domestic issues that make his foreign/international policy 'suspect '..
O doesn't want to send more troops.. bad optics.. what he'd like is for his NATO allies to shit or get off the pot and pony up some 'fightin' men ' willing to take some hits..

Canada is getting tired of hauling the load by itself in the south, etc.. and will be done [ more like burnt out/exhausted] by 2011.. So far none of the NATO boys want to take a hit 'cause it looks bad among their own voters..[ What that means to the stability rationale or otherwise clubby relations/relevance of NATO is another topic for discussion.. but, if you ain't going to play , why be in the game? ]

So... let's postulate a scenario..
The Taliban aren't Al Quaeda.. they aren't in it to chastize America, to spread fear and loathing across the world.. they just want to run things in Afghanistan like they did before they got kicked out. It is pretty obvious that they want to get back to being top dog and reinstitute their brand of ' conservative' Islam into the mix...

So, what if the leaders of the Taliban up and say they are giving up 'armed resistance' and will work with the Karzai or other government? They lay down their weapons, get amnesty for the ' junior ranks' , sacrifice a leader or two to stand trial for' crimes' [ dragging things out for years probably ] and they form a ' political party' embracing the 'democratic process' and - dammit, get themselves elected [ not that far fetched ], if not as a government , at least as a significant 'opposition'.. and push through 'constitutional changes' , various laws and rules, etc.. that turn the country toward a Islamic Theocracy - I mean.. more like Saudi Arabia hehehe --

America and the West can't complain..as it was all done legally and is the will of the people, etc. etc.. hell they aren't yelling and dumping Karzai when everyone knows he rigged the election this time...so how could they bitch when it was all done 'right'?

Taliban get control, legally, go back to the ' old ways' before they got chased out and Afghanistan is back to the way it was before 2001... Down side Afghanistan is one repressed regime, up side is the drug trade is eliminated [ though, the collapse of the international cartels would cause havoc in the crime world and the flood of drug addicts on withdrawl on the streets of Europe and America would 'burden' the health system a tad no doubt -] along with music, art, literature, education..yada yada yada...

The warlords get uppity over the loss of of stature, control, wealth and the cycle begins again.. BUT.. Obama will be out of office by then and it will be someone else's headache..besides, the world will have moved on to deal with Darfur/Sudan Somalia Zimbabwe or some other 'failed regime'; and forgotten all about Afhgan issues, just like we've 'forgotten' about Rawanda, Haiti and..well .. place name here...

Obama has got to work his charm in Bratislava or wherever the NATO bunch are lunching in the next week or so to get them to put some boys in harm's way for the cause..or he's going to have to cough up , most, if not all, of the troops, the General figures are needed to do the job like 'what worked' in Iraq even if it means losing another popularity point or ten...

Me, I'm sitting back and watching to see how fast Obama's hair turns grey in office.. Just got to look at how much Clinton, Dubya and the others developed sunken eyes and white tufts trying to placate and juggle all the 'initiatives' foreign and domestic..for far less pay and approval than the average CEO of a major bank/brokerage/investment firm...hell, he'd make far more getting into films like Denzel or Will where he could solve the ills of the world in 90 minutes...

but, I digress...

How will the Obamaman worm his way out of this one? Best/Worst scenario comments, anyone?

Hard to tell which way these things are going to go. Every which way you look at these events concerning Afganistan from past, present to future it all turns out bad.

What I'd like to know is how they came up with the magic number of 40K addtional troops to add to those already committed there!

Here's what I'm getting at.... mountain warfare is all about boots on the ground going in and killing, capturing whatever and whoever is in those mountain ravines, caves, canyons. Look how many men it took just to take Mount Suribachi.

How many Mount Suribaci's equivilants are there in the mountain ranges of Afganistan?

I just don't think that we as a nation are prepared for that level of warfare over there. Even at the height of Russian military might, they couldn't succeed either, and they really threw everything they had at the effort. Darn near decimated their military capability as a result of those efforts too. Does history really repeat itself? Starting to look that way to me.

I just don't see that much has changed between then and now, which exception of who is over there now, and who's in charge.

When President Obama got elected on his platform of CHANGE, I don't believe that included Afganistan. General McChrystal really put President Obama on the spot by going public with his opinions didn't he?

Perhaps change meant that the US will be purchasing nuclear fuel and weapons grade material from Iran next.


Curious this news release just out:
Obama kept returning to one question for his advisers: Who is our adversary?

The answer to Obama's question was al-Qaida, as it was in March when Obama first announced an Afghanistan strategy.

But amid changing circumstances in Afghanistan, the implications of that renewed determination for the current war debate are many.

There now are no more than 100 al-Qaida in Afghanistan. Instead, the U.S. fight in Afghanistan is against the Taliban, now increasingly being defined by the Obama team as distinct from al-Qaida. While still dangerous, the Taliban is seen as an indigenous movement with almost entirely local and territorial aims, less of a threat to the U.S. than the terrorist network.

Obama's team believes some elements in the Taliban are aligned with al-Qaida, with its transnational reach and aims of attacking the West, but probably not the majority and mostly for tactical rather than ideological reasons, the official said.

Now the next article:
WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama is prepared to accept some Taliban involvement in Afghanistan's political future and will determine how many more U.S. troops to send to the war based only on keeping al-Qaida at bay, a senior administration official said Thursday.

The sharpened focus by Obama's team on fighting al-Qaida above all other goals, while downgrading the emphasis on the Taliban, comes in the midst of an intensely debated administration review of the increasingly unpopular war.

Now the fun part....how to be able to tell the difference between Taliban and Al-Qaida while yer getting incoming fire.

Times, they are a changing.....

This message has been edited. Last edited by: thegunny,

http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/Pakistan The way I see it is the President and Vice-President is trying to depend on the very creator of the Taliban which is Pakistan or at least what we call Shadow Goverment of Pakistan who don't really answer to no one.

Rocketeer

Again with the rant jokes eh? You and HarryP should form a Fraternal Order of Rant Profiler's.

On my " Rant " thread you wrote:

" No one ever said it was going to be easy to haul a country from the 13th to the 21st century in a short bit and General McCrystal has laid out pretty bluntly and squarely what has to be done to , at least , get the thing going and on track."

I think that was quick considering our goal had nothing to do with what time period they still live in. Also they are tribal nomadic which is just super. Before they reached the limelight by attacking America, it was just back and forth BS between Osama and his pals vs The Northern front. Nothing was being created and no structure was conceived. We kicked their ass and they now hide in Pakistan, but they still have no structure to build a lasting reason for whatever they fight for. That is unless you factor in America. America is the best thing that ever happened to their boring way of thinking. Once we hit the road they will attack each other just as they did when the USSR split.

This was on Drudge yesterday :

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/t...n/article6865359.ece

Here is a tad of that article :

“We’re lost — that’s how I feel. I’m not exactly sure why we’re here,” said Specialist Raquime Mercer, 20, whose closest friend was shot dead by a renegade Afghan policeman last Friday. “I need a clear-cut purpose if I’m going to get hurt out here or if I’m going to die.”

Sergeant Christopher Hughes, 37, from Detroit, has lost six colleagues and survived two roadside bombs. Asked if the mission was worthwhile, he replied: “If I knew exactly what the mission was, probably so, but I don’t.”

Those guys can kick ass and they reinlist too, they are just sick of Afghanistan and the sheer boredom of that nutty dump. People keep telling us that if we leave Al-Qaeda will return. Return from where, Pakistan? We had to go to Berlin to put an end to Hitler, not Austria.

I hope you guys don't mind, but I am going to be staying out of debates/threads involving Afganastan, and OEF due to the deployemnt of my friend. At this moment it is a bit too emotional...

The problem with Afghanistan, as I see it, is the same problem the military has always faced.. Politicians - the 'reason', the ' message' is always changing/being changed..so that the objectives and the mission are fluid and never provide the military with a clear cut and achievable goal, both short and long term.

It was supposed to be simple: Afghanistan was the home to and training ground for Al Quaeda.. Go in and whack the scum for daring to attack America.. The Taliban, who had taken over after the collapse of the Russian puppet regime and the bickering of the Drug/Warlords, medieval fundamentalists though they were, were still the ' legitimate government' and , technically, they could impose whatever rules they wanted with the ' support of the people'.. So if they banned women from doing/being anything and were sour enough not to like Britney Spears music and hated every form of 'enlightenment', well, we could grit our teeth but 'accept' it.

The' only' reason for really attacking Afghanistan was because it ' harboured' Al Quaeda!..

Al Aqueda is no longer there... they' fled' to Pakistan and elsewhere in the region. The Taliban, backwards thinking misogynists that they are, are not a threat to America.. They are just one faction in the country..

IF they ever wise up and stop blowing stuff up [ and one way to make them think that is to whack them with Western superiority in weapons and tactics until there's just the 'moderates' and wiser types left ] they will be ' invited' to join the government as a political entity and a whole 'new' way of things will happen...and don't think that is too far fetched a scenario - its being 'negotiated' as we speak in 'secret circles' -

They did it with Hezbollah, Hamas and others and would have done it with the Tamil Tigers, too.

In the meantime, as the politics shift, the job and reason for troops doesn't change as quickly or for similar reasons. So the military is now there to ' stabilize' the regions [ i.e. stop Taliban raids and coercion until such time as the 'coercion by the Taliban becomes 'lobbying ' and ' political campaigning ']then to secure the area [ no more killings and blowing up so that villages can function 'normally - i.e. the elders can run things like they used to ]then to re-construct infrastructure [ i.e. build hospitals, schools and other facilities to educate the Afghans so they won't accept the repressive anti-women rhetoric/religious beliefs of the Taliban and keep them in check ] and then to restore the landscape [ i.e. suppress the drug industry, build other economic drivers such as oil piplines, and other western needs so that as money flows into the country the folks turn from Allah- quoting fanatics to consumers of Halal McD burgers and Sat TV watching Walmart shoppers ].

Now McChrystal is saying this will ' turn around' in about 4 years [ optimistically speaking ] when the Afghan military and police, properly trained and equipped with real stuff and help, not just ' pledges' of money from the West will be 'ready' to keep the fringe/extremists in check enough so that the clear-thinking Taliban types see the merit in running the show from within the system [ and are 'corrupted' by the wealth and prestige and other ' perks' of being part of the government supported by world-wide peace-loving UN types ].

All that has to be done is prop up a 'reasonable' regime [ doesn't matter if its left-leaning or right-wing..] that doesn't look ' too corrupt' or doesn't blatantly skim off too much aid money into foreign bank accounts - Karzai may want to desperately stay in power and, admittedly, so far, he's the only one with 'western-leaning ' acceptable beliefs and, he isn't skimming too much into personal profits - at least not overtly [ though Abdullah is a better bet, though no one would admit it.. until the vote rigging recount is finished ].

So, bottom line is the soldiers on the frontlines are being asked to do stuff that changes week to week as politics change and the governments back home try to scramble to keep things together in a fast changing scene while at the same time trying to 'explain' issues and placate the home crowd with how well they are doing to save the world with long term altruisitic endeavours and not just futzing about for short term gain and self-agrandizement..

Rest assured Obama will make the 'right' decision which will get him closer to being re-elected' and the Afghanis will be left with too little real money, too little opportunity to build a 'just society' and the folks there will fall back to old ways of trusting the powerful tribal factions and the village elders because its the only way to be secure in their little villages and mountain passes and will always be that way until the super highways, proper communication channels and other trappings of modern society break down their isolation and they see a 'better way '...and that will only happen when we turn over running Afghanistan to the multi-national corporations and let the oil and gas industry, Coke and Pepsi and a host of other companies into the place establishing ' branch plants' and 'off-shore ' factroies.. oh, and educate the kids...

Hell, China is getting to expensive for those Addidas and Sony plants, Afghanistan is the new frontier..

gee, how did I get so cynical?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com...tion/article1317726/

Fuel for the fire..

Rocketeer this writer of the Global likes to sound like he knows the US but infact he don't know crap almost all of the Civil War Officers were in fact in real life were Doctors and Elite with no Military History some were just Cowboys with men that would follow them.Some came out of War Colleges some were just the head of a Family.Most of our US Generals of today are trained for the type of job or War they are fighting simlar to the type of Commander used in the Pacfic in WW2 they seldom moved Commanders and unlisted from types of Ships because of their ability and previous training.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: SULLY1,

Sully:

I think the writer was trying to get at the fact that the 'professionals' [ i.e. the gnerals ] are stuck with the position of telling the boss [ the politicians with their own agendas -which is, after all staying in office and looking good doing it so they can get re-elected ] the unvarnished truth..

General: Mr. Prez.. this war is a shitstorm and the only way to end it is to send in enough guys to whack the bejezzus out of the extremists. We shoulda done that right from the start, but we didn't so we got a do it now or this thing is gonna go tits up and we'll look like a bunch of bumbling wussies on the world stage. World's biggest power can't swat a few flies in a desert/mountain pass.

Pres: Oh my, General.. that would mean sending more troops, spending more money..people could get killed.. we could be in bigger debt.. We can't do that.. How can we justify spending billions on tanks and drone planes when we can't build economic family cars or provide government subsidized bandaids free of charge to the citizens?
If we send more soldiers, more will get killed, law of averages the accountants tell me.. that won't look good when their moms and dads start crying on the nightly TV.. You know how Rush Limbaugh just loves sticking it to me..

No we'll just have to make do..I'll ask the other countries to send in a few more guys or maybe agree to let some of them get killed in rough spots instead..

Gen: By that time the Taliban will be running things and we'll be back where we started. We'll look like the Russkies running with their tails 'tween legs, Sir!

Pres: General.. I think you might want to take an early retirement.. I'll give you a promotion and a medal and a nice certificate for the wall and you can take your pension and write a blog or something..Its obvious you don't understand politics and such.. You see I care about what the American people think not what the Taliban and Afghanis want. They don't vote -not for me, anyway..besides. America winning wars? No, sorry.. doesn't look good when we're trying to solve things/get oil deals in the Middle East or get trade deals with China..

Rocketeer,

I was tempted (prompted by the recent 'Phoon rant') to 'disappear' once again from this forum. Fortunately (or unfortunately), I came across a photo recently. One of myself and 12 others posed in a....well...."I can't tell you or I'd have to kill you" reunion of an operation in 1993.

Thanks for reminding me of......things I've done and am still capable of.....continuing/inciting.

Continuing the fight.

Patoloco

Maybe,someday,you can write a book?
Put me down for an autographed copy.

?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: TYPHOON44,

quote:

Originally posted by patoloco:
Rocketeer,

I was tempted (prompted by the recent 'Phoon rant') to 'disappear' once again from this forum. Fortunately (or unfortunately), I came across a photo recently. One of myself and 12 others posed in a....well...."I can't tell you or I'd have to kill you" reunion of an operation in 1993.

Thanks for reminding me of......things I've done and am still capable of.....continuing/inciting.

Continuing the fight.

Patoloco

Please don't refer to me as a reason for your leaving or staying here. I'm not holding you back, and my supposed " rant " with HarryP was for 10 soldiers ( 1 from my old home town ) that passed away in Afghanistan. Had nothing to do with you or even HarryP. My original toss with a link is and was valid.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: TYPHOON44,

http://www.afghan-web.com/history/chron/index3.html

As if the place ever had a peaceful period for more than a few years. My belief is that it will always be a place where the people only care for the strongest group controlling their area.

HarryP

I noticed that link was part 3. Even Alexander the Great passed through there. All I know is they are very tribal and there is no central core which every country needs for a structure. I just read that Karzai rigged the election so out the door went our claim of " free elections " etc,. So now what?