Following on from a previous thread...

when you think of Somalia you think a] pirates b] al Quaeda c] Mogadishu/Blackhawk Down

and, for the most part, these figure prominently in any discussion..but they aren't the totality of the place, nor are they the major factor in the country...

according to the briefing I sat in on..there are some big and positive changes coming there..not on the scale of Afghanistan or Iraq, though, perhaps, just as important and, perhaps, with a bit more positive outcome and sooner rather than later..

context is everything.

Somalia, like most of Africa is emerging from the 19th/20th century post colonial situation where it used to be part of Western/European colonial aspirations, a place to be exploited/plundered for resources and then, later, it ' developed' independence '...etc. etc...

despite the best efforts and, despite some early successes, it has slipped down the scale of good places to be , mostly from internal strife and external complacency...Somalia , like all African states is a construct by external forces and cobbled together from disparate ethnic groups, geography and such..

what it had/has going for it is, of course, location,..it has 7 fine deep water ports that could serve as gateways to the African interior [ three of which are blocked by debris/sunken ships -sabotaged by 'rebel forces/disaffected groups'.. but these are/will be cleared shortly thanks to international efforts ] allowing for a booming import/export/transhipment economy to develop.. it is lacking in roads and other transportation infrastructure, but that is now being corrected with the planning and construction of a trans-Somali rail line [ funded by the UN/EU and African states ].. A couple of Canadian companies are involved in this and air transport development is underway to bring back freight and passenger both domestic and international..First big push is for an 'airlift' of some 10,000 Somali's to Saudi Arabia so that they can make the Haj to Mecca..[ hearts and minds ]

Yes, the majority - not all - of the Somalis are Muslim..and are divided, among Sunnis, Shi'ites and smaller sects... but they are not fighting a 'religious war' despite the presence of Al Quaeda..[ Al Quaeda isn't a unified operation, there are offshoots, sects within sects and they are not a multi-national entity operated from some remote HQ - the Somali Al Q branch is ' independent' of others and is fighting for reasons that are for the most part economic and ethnic rather than out of religious fundamentalism/fanaticism.]

The problem in Somalia is, as was seen in Blackhawk Down [ the movie ] and books and reports, etc.. is that the country, like most of the region operated along ethnic lines and when the various clans/tribes were mashed together by European overlords in times past, there was a power play, jockeying for top spot that has never been allowed to resolve itself [ keep the elements divided for control, of course ].. In the case here, there are 7 tribes and subsets each vying for 'special consideration' and with no agreements/ training/ revelatory teaching to show them that they could and should work together for the benefit of all instead of just their little group.. things fell apart..[ as we've seen elsewhere ] when it came to forming a government..

The government in Somalia - the one recognized by the UN and such.. isn't a 'failed regime', just badly underfunded and unable to deliver on the promises it made..so, naturally, groups that were neglected, disenfranchised, etc.. turned to other means of keeping those under their wing/control protected.. armed conflict, stealing from each other.. the strong/powerful elements get the job done, protect those who support or accept them and form a de-facto government where lawlessness exists.. that they are strict [ ruthless] is again an offshoot of their need to maintain discipline...we all know the case..

Pirates are one example.. Somalia had/has no deep sea fishing industry..all their 'fleets' were inland/coastal fishing or small craft netters.. when other countries decided that the Somali coast had lots of fish and no one to ' protect' them they began 'exploiting the resource' using modern trawling techniques.. sucking up lots of fish leaving less for the locals.. in retaliation, the Somalis began fighting back using their small, fast highly manoeuverable craft to 'deter' foreign types and ' piracy' began.. if other nations had respected the Somalian territorial claims or helped build a local industry to supply them the pirates wouldn't have gotten out of hand.. Moves are now underway to 'recruit' the pirates into an official Somali Coast Guard, with uniforms, pay and other legitimate authority/stability.. etc.. to re-assert Somali sovereignty.. this is now ongoing and should turn things around..

Big problem in Somalia is money [ what else is new ?].. not having money but disbursing it.. Lots of funding comes in from the UN, US and EU and others but doesn't filter down to where its needed or get spread about as it should.. reason number one - no banks!.. there are 2.8 million Somalis in the US and 2.1 in Canada..not rich, but solid middle class professional types who left when things went sour.. doctors, lawyers, engineers, teachers.. etc.. and like most immigrants/ refugees they send money back home to relatives.. millions!.. to get it to the folks they have to rely on 'agents' who, for a fee, will pack cash and travel to remote villages to give it out.. A Western Banking consortium is now establishing a National Bank system with ATM's and issuing cards to locals.. they can then go and take out money sent to them from abroad directly in local currency without worrying about having to stash large amounts or transporting cash from place to place..

The big thing is that the 7 tribes have bought into the changes being proposed, including the local Al Quaeda branch[ who claim they were only in it to ' protect' the people -and there's some validity in that ]..they are forming a 'national police force' [ not an army ] and the only ones who are fighting this whole thing are the regional/factional warlords - Mogadishu their hotspot - because these are the guys who are making loads of money through bribery, extortion and protection rackets -things that were put in place to -one could say, legitimately - help the people manage in an unstable climate..a replacement for government.. but, of course, now ,becoming obsolete.. turning these mob types to 'other pursuits' will be the tricky part because they have a loyal following among many who knew that without them there would have been anarchy,and so were willing to pay the 'tribute' necessary..

enlightened self-interest is the name of things right now..

so.. new banking, rail and air transport, police, coast guard and other infrastructure [ wireless and cell phone interconnect ] etc.. is months away -so I'm told- and a plan that works is moving forward.. Somalia is self-contained enough and small politically, geographically [ relatively speaking ] to allow this to be implemented in large chunks over a short time frame and the concept may not be useful in places like Afghanistan or Iraq where terrain and other factors exist...

the backing for all this comes not from just western governments but private interests [ Somalia may have oil and other ' exploitable/manageable resources- but, hey no one said all this 'charity' was going to be free ] but this is being internally driven and supported by outside..not the other way round.. one of the backers, we were informed, is a large lobby group in the US well connected to a previous administration and peppered with notable overachievers, including some from the Roosevelt family ]..

so.. the speaker seemed to be enthusiastic that this will work,,realistic in his assessment and acknowledged that there were pitfalls and possible stumble points, but that it was going ahead after a number of years of planning, working with Somali leaders and factions, etc...
and that this was moving quite fast, in political terms, which should prove a precedent for other regimes/locales..

test case - example of co-operation..and a formula that has had past mistakes corrected by looking at previous attempts elsewhere..

sounded plausible.. looked good in power point and, for once, the numbers seemed to add up..and, what surprised me was the 'cost' wasn't anywhere near as high as the usual initiatives/fiascos flouted/touted by the UN and 'world government' entities in the past..

so, as they say.. watch the skies...


a lot more was covered/discussed but I figure this is enough for now.. maybe more can be discussed when and if questions arise from this post

Well done & done well.
One thing,I don't understand.Somalis follow the law of the clan/tribe.It is their being and they can name generations of the clan as a living history.With their first allegiance being the clan,how can anyone break that cycle so the Somalis can stand united and bring forth a solvent nation?If it can be done,you are talking a very long term project,and we all know the west has a short attention span.
No one said it would be easy.
Thank you Rocketeer,for the insight.It gives one a glimmer of hope.

The trick, I gather, is in giving each clan/tribe a vested interest in a particular ministry/operation/project for which success will reflect the prestige of the group.. they can't/won't fail so they don't lose face...finding 'equally important projects for each to undertake or oversee so that no one is 'slighted' is the balancing act that makes or breaks the thing.. they're working for themselves and, at the same time, for each other..the expectation is that the working together will draw them together for the good of the country rather than lining their own pockets..

bottom line is that they all realize they can't undo the country/boundaries as they exist and reshape along ethnic/tribal lines.. the place has to remain viable to the West/UN etc.. so they got little choice..their reps are on the line..for one tribe/group to fail would ruin them..so they all work that much harder.. or so the theory goes..
we'll see..I guess...

What was the saying by Chairman Mao?"A march of a thousand miles begins with a single step".
There is always hope...along with hard work!

Although it got buried on the back pages of reports, I see that the US Spec Ops boys went into Mogadishu couple of days ago and took out a high ranking Al Queda 'official' with some precision moves..

reading between the lines [ in my personal opinion ] this couldn't have happened without some local support in timing and location info, which further suggests that there is an element within the 'disaffected' that is not quite content with the direction their leaders may be taking them.. one can hope that the 'new guy' is more amenable to 'discussion ' and 'negotiation' rather than another intransigent hardliner...and will buy into the 'new direction' being proposed which I outlined earlier..

we'll see..but it does, at least, indicate things have some ' movement'...can we count this as a hopeful sign?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8260687.stm

guess the pot is getting stirred.

It's quite well if some illustrations were following here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8262310.stm

dust hasn't quite settled...

Foreign jihadists,muslim extremeism,devestated economy,whew...things don't look good.
Nice to see USA can still "reach out and touch" someone,Kenyan born Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan.
I guess the "peacekeepers" didn't search the suicide vehicle because it had UN markings.

Facts on Somalia:

http://worldfacts.us/Somalia.htm

still some wrinkles to iron out..

http://www.theglobeandmail.com...ands/article1293764/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com...-war/article1294194/